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Critical evaluation: what’s working, what to watch
• Inflation credibility is intact, maybe even too successful
o With CPI projected near 3.1%, inflation looks tame, even undershooting mid-
target for a while. That anchors expectations and supports real incomes. But
it also implies a relatively high positive real policy rate, which can dampen
investment if maintained too long2.
• Prudence amid global shocks makes sense—up to a point
o Holding rates in the face of tariff tension and geopolitical noise is defensible:
policy space matters if conditions worsen. The minutes reflect this “watchful
neutrality,” balancing caution with optionality3. Still, prolonged caution risks
missing a window to crowd in private capex if benign inflation persists5.
• Transmission over tinkering
o The RBI emphasizes giving time for past easing to flow through. That’s
sound—India’s lending rates and deposit pricing can lag. As CRR/liquidity
adjustments work through the system, the real economy may feel more of
the prior 100 bps cuts without new moves right now4.
• Monetary policy’s limits are real
o Analysts note rate cuts alone won’t fix trade, supply, or tariff shocks. The
stance reads as a “hawkish pause”—data-dependent and sober about
monetary limits. Fiscal support (e.g., targeted tax relief or GST tweaks) can
share the load, especially if trade headwinds bite.
• Risk management vs. growth impulse
o External risk management has rightly dominated. But if inflation remains
anchored and tariffs don’t spiral, a calibrated nudge—say, a small cut
combined with OMOs to steady long yields—could ease real rates without
stoking excess leverage. The MPC minutes reveal at least some openness to
easing down the road3.
Bottom line: the RBI’s stance protects credibility and preserves ammunition. The risk? If
benign inflation lingers and private investment stays hesitant, the policy mix could feel a bit
too tight for too long7.
What to watch and what could be refined
• Data triggers for action
o A clear reaction function—e.g., if core inflation stays near 4% with weak
investment sentiment, consider a modest cut—would help markets. The
current neutral stance already implies flexibility; making the triggers legible
would amplify that benefit3.
• Yield curve management
o With growth at ~6.5% and inflation subdued, anchoring long-term borrowing
costs via balanced OMOs/Operation Twist could support capex without a
headline rate cut.
• Targeted liquidity, not floodgates
o If sectoral credit pockets are tight (MSMEs/exporters amid tariffs), targeted
long-term repos or guarantee-backed flows may work better than broad